Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Each writes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
